In partnership with

Invest in what you know

The Bottom Line Upfront 💡

NVIDIA $NVDA ( ▲ 2.05% ) has transformed from a gaming graphics company into the undisputed king of artificial intelligence infrastructure, generating a staggering $130.5 billion in revenue (up 114%) with 75% gross margins that would make any CFO weep with joy. The company sits at the center of the AI revolution, powering everything from ChatGPT to autonomous vehicles with its specialized chips and CUDA software ecosystem. While facing emerging competition from big tech companies building their own chips and geopolitical headwinds from export restrictions, NVIDIA's technical leadership, developer ecosystem, and innovation pace create formidable competitive moats. The investment thesis is simple but high-stakes: if AI transforms every industry as promised, NVIDIA will be the primary beneficiary. If the AI boom proves to be hype, even this exceptional company could face a painful correction. With $43.2 billion in cash and a dominant market position, NVIDIA is built to weather storms – but at current valuations, perfection is already priced in.

Partnership

Hire Ava, the Industry-Leading AI BDR

Your BDR team is wasting time on things AI can automate. Our AI BDR Ava automates your entire outbound demand generation so you can get leads delivered to your inbox on autopilot.

She operates within the Artisan platform, which consolidates every tool you need for outbound:

  • 300M+ High-Quality B2B Prospects, including E-Commerce and Local Business Leads

  • Automated Lead Enrichment With 10+ Data Sources

  • Full Email Deliverability Management

  • Multi-Channel Outreach Across Email & LinkedIn

  • Human-Level Personalization

Strata Layers Chart

Layer 1: The Business Model 🏛️

What Does NVIDIA Actually Do? 🤔

Think of NVIDIA as the company that taught computers how to think in parallel instead of one thought at a time. While your brain can process multiple things simultaneously, traditional computer processors (CPUs) are more like a really fast person doing one math problem at a time. NVIDIA's Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are like having thousands of people working on math problems simultaneously, which turns out to be exactly what artificial intelligence needs.

Founded in 1993, NVIDIA started by making graphics cards for gamers who wanted their virtual worlds to look less like Minecraft and more like reality. But here's where it gets interesting: the same parallel processing that makes explosions look realistic in video games also happens to be perfect for training AI models.

The Money Machine 💰

NVIDIA operates as a "fabless" semiconductor company, meaning it designs the chips but doesn't actually manufacture them (kind of like how Apple designs iPhones but doesn't run the factories). Since its inception, NVIDIA has invested over $58.2 billion in R&D, which is more than the GDP of some countries, to create what's essentially become the infrastructure of the AI revolution.

The company makes money through two main segments:

Compute & Networking (89% of revenue): This is the AI goldmine, generating $116.2 billion ↗️ in fiscal 2025 (up 145%!). It includes:

  • Data center GPUs that power AI training and inference

  • Networking equipment that connects thousands of these GPUs

  • Automotive platforms for self-driving cars

  • Edge computing solutions for robotics

Graphics (11% of revenue): The original business, bringing in $14.3 billion ↗️ (up 6%). This covers:

  • GeForce gaming GPUs

  • Professional visualization tools

  • Cloud gaming services

Key Success Metrics 📊

NVIDIA tracks several critical metrics that tell the story of their dominance:

  • Developer Ecosystem: Over 5.9 million developers use CUDA (their programming platform) – that's like having a small country's worth of people building on your foundation

  • Supercomputer Presence: Powers over 75% of the world's top 500 supercomputers

  • AI Market Share: Estimated 80%+ market share in AI training chips

  • Gross Margins: A stunning 75% ↗️ (up from 72.7% last year) – these are Apple-level margins in a hardware business

Layer 2: Category Position 🏆

The Competitive Landscape 🥊

NVIDIA sits at the center of the AI universe, but they're not alone in wanting that throne. The competitive landscape looks like this:

Traditional Chip Competitors:

  • AMD: The scrappy underdog trying to chip away at NVIDIA's dominance with their MI series

  • Intel: The former king of processors, desperately trying to catch up in AI with their Gaudi chips

  • Qualcomm: Strong in mobile but pushing into data center AI

The Real Threat – Big Tech Going DIY: This is where it gets spicy. NVIDIA's biggest customers are also becoming their biggest competitive threats:

It's like being a restaurant supplier where your biggest customers decide to start their own farms.

Market Position Strength 💪

Despite the threats, NVIDIA maintains several key advantages:

  1. The CUDA Moat: Switching from NVIDIA means rewriting millions of lines of code

  2. Performance Leadership: Their chips are still 2-5x faster than competitors for AI workloads

  3. Full-Stack Approach: They provide everything from chips to software to cloud services

  4. Innovation Pace: New architecture every year vs. competitors' 2-3 year cycles

Layer 3: Show Me The Money! 📈

Revenue Breakdown 💵

NVIDIA's fiscal 2025 was absolutely bonkers – $130.5 billion ↗️ in revenue (up 114%). To put that in perspective, they made more money than McDonald's, Nike, and Starbucks combined.

By Segment:

  • Compute & Networking: $116.2B (89% of total) ↗️

  • Graphics: $14.3B (11% of total) ↗️

By Geography:

  • United States: $61.3B (47%)

  • International: $69.2B (53%)

By End Market:

  • Data Center: $115.2B (88% of total) – the AI money printer

  • Gaming: $11.4B (9%) – still a solid business

  • Professional Visualization: $1.9B (1.4%)

  • Automotive: $1.7B (1.3%)

Customer Concentration 🎯

Here's something interesting: one direct customer represented 12% of total revenue. NVIDIA doesn't name names, but when you're selling billions in AI chips, there aren't many customers writing checks that big. Think cloud giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta.

This concentration is both a blessing (huge orders) and a curse (customer dependency). It's like being a wedding photographer where 12% of your income comes from one very wealthy family's events.

Margin Magic

NVIDIA's margins are the stuff of CFO dreams:

  • Gross Margin: 75% ↗️ (up 2.3 percentage points)

  • Operating Margin: 62.4% ↗️

  • Net Margin: 55.8% ↗️

These margins are insane for a hardware company. For context, Apple's gross margins hover around 45%. NVIDIA is essentially printing money.

Layer 4: What Do We Have to Believe? 📚

The Bull Case 🐂

To believe NVIDIA will continue its meteoric rise, you need to believe:

  1. AI is Still in the First Inning: We're nowhere near peak AI adoption. Every company, government, and organization will need AI infrastructure, and NVIDIA will power most of it.

  2. The Moat Holds: CUDA's ecosystem advantage and NVIDIA's innovation pace will keep competitors at bay, even as big tech tries to build alternatives.

  3. Inference > Training: The real money is in running AI models (inference), not just training them. This market could be 10x larger than training.

  4. New Markets Emerge: Autonomous vehicles, robotics, digital twins, and applications we haven't even imagined yet will drive demand for decades.

  5. Geopolitical Tensions Stabilize: Export restrictions don't expand further, and NVIDIA can serve global markets.

The Bear Case 🐻

The skeptical view requires believing:

  1. The AI Bubble Pops: Current AI spending is unsustainable hype, and demand will crater when companies realize AI doesn't deliver promised ROI.

  2. Competition Succeeds: AMD, Intel, or custom chips from big tech finally deliver comparable performance at lower costs, breaking NVIDIA's stranglehold.

  3. Customer Concentration Risk: Major customers successfully reduce dependence on NVIDIA, causing revenue to plummet.

  4. Geopolitical Escalation: Export restrictions expand globally, cutting NVIDIA off from major markets and limiting growth.

  5. Innovation Stagnation: NVIDIA's pace of improvement slows, allowing competitors to catch up while demand growth moderates.

The Bottom Line 🎯

NVIDIA has built an extraordinary business at the center of the most important technological shift since the Internet. Their financial performance is staggering – 114% revenue growth, 75% gross margins, and $72.9 billion in net income would make any CEO weep with joy.

But here's the thing: they're priced for perfection. The stock reflects expectations that AI demand will continue exploding, that NVIDIA will maintain dominance, and that new applications will emerge to drive growth for years.

The company has genuine competitive advantages – the CUDA ecosystem, innovation leadership, and full-stack approach create real barriers to competition. However, they also face legitimate risks from customer concentration, geopolitical tensions, and the natural tendency for high-margin businesses to attract determined competitors.

The investment decision boils down to this: Do you believe we're in the early stages of an AI transformation that will reshape every industry, with NVIDIA as the primary beneficiary? Or do you think current AI spending represents a bubble that will eventually deflate?

Given their track record, financial strength, and position in the AI ecosystem, NVIDIA deserves serious consideration. Just remember that extraordinary growth often comes with extraordinary volatility – and in NVIDIA's case, both the upside and downside potential are massive.

AI-written, human-approved

Disclaimer: This guide is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but StrataFinance does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.

Reply

or to participate

More From Capital

No posts found